Top 12 Ideas For Your Portfolio In 2014 [Apple Inc Google Inc … | Electric Cars and Hybrid Vehicle - Green energy

Top 12 Ideas For Your Portfolio In 2014 [Apple Inc Google Inc …

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Top 12 Ideas For Your Portfolio In

(Editors’ Note: This covers a micro-cap stock. be aware of the risks associated these stocks.)

It’s time of the year — snow on the ground, the decorations are and it’s time to start about 2014. It’s a good year, and though the in general might not have as of a run next year, 2014 is up to be a year in which stock-pickers can be I like to offer investors ideas (I usually pick 12) in to provide enough pick for looking to diversify, and ideas meet a wide-range on investor

I see many opportunities still in these markets for investors into the New Year. As I put together my top for 2014, a common theme — 2014 will be the we see a revitalization in corporate spending, in the U.S. We’ve gone several years where the markets, and companies in general, become debt averse. We now many companies with of cash sitting on their sheets, and as the markets have the opportunity to make adequate from repurchasing stock has

Over the past several companies have delayed spending due to political instability, but is shaping up to be a year in which we get stability in Washington, perhaps as stability as we can realistically expect in the future. Under these I believe that many will find that greatest returns on capital be generated from increased on capital equipment and capital In addition, given the continued low of debt financing, many might choose to issue at low rates before the Fed begins to (which I expect to occur, at a pace that has already expected, during the back of 2014), and the delayed capex of the last few years finally in.

Outside of the U.S. 2014 be a year in which we see the rest of the start to focus more of its on clean energy. China increase both investment and for new energy vehicles. Canada ramp up its $350 billion boom project and focus of its resources on increasing energy for residential properties.

In Korea, mandates will force companies to expand capex on energy. And in Europe, and especially we will continue to see an expansion of dollars aimed at clean You will see from our list that several of our ideas fit this thesis.

My top 12 ideas for [Macy’s (M ), Google (GOOG ), Kors (KORS ), Nationstar (NSM ), Ocwen Financial ), Viacom (VIAB ), Deckers (DECK ), Ruckus Wireless ), Shuffle Master (SHFL ), Las Sands (LVS ), Dollar (DLTR ), and BBT Bank (BBT )] had an return of 45% during the year. portfolio was set up to take advantage of the and low-end (not the middle) of the low premiums in mortgage servicing and the continued growth of gaming in Though it will not be easy to this performance next I believe that a portfolio on capex growth and U.S. will outperform the overall

I also wanted to thank the at Manalapan Oracle Capital for their help in putting this top ideas list. Oracle, a long/short equity fund managed by Joseph significantly outperformed both the SP 500 and index this year big winners including Isis (ISIS ), Acadia Pharmaceuticals ), Aceto Corporation (ACET ), Industries (CYT ), Johnson (JCI ), La-Z-Boy (LZB ), Electronics (MEI ), and Rockwell (RMTI ). Seeking Alpha and Manalapan Oracle Analyst Bunge was instrumental in helping me put the ideas for this article and I wanted to thank him for his work.

let’s get to our names for 2014.

into 2013, if you asked me to my top casino-related names, I would said Las Vegas Sands, Master, and Bally Technologies. 2013, after thinking the move several times BYI finally acquired SHFL. the growing opportunity in Asia, the shift to table gaming in the US, and the revenue possibilities off the emergence of gaming in the U.S.

I think BYI got a steal. By the end of FY 2017, I that the SHFL acquisition add $2 of EPS and another $.60 in synergies for

This acquisition also BYI in a position to be the biggest winner in the of the systems business. To give idea on the opportunity around business, at a conference I attended a ago, the CEO of MGM Resorts (MGM ) the systems business the most thing that has happened to the business since the implementation of tickets instead of coins. impressive commentary around the on their last earning I believe that 2014 be the year that the casinos their capex spend, focused on systems, and we will see an point in this business.

BYI gives really good in their latest presentation on the in systems, and I believe that the will add another $3 in EPS by the end of FY 2017. I am that BYI has a combined run-rate EPS of $10 by the end of FY

BYI is in the best, and most diversified, the company has ever experienced. Its position in the systems business reach an inflection point year. I believe the stock end the year at a price north of

Cabela’s, one of the best stories in today, provides investors a unique growth + value On the growth side, 2014 be a year in which the company an aggressive store growth that will double the current square footage of the retail business by 2017. only the beginning; considering the currently has only 50 stores, and the opportunity for up to 225 stores between the US and there is at least 10 years on left on this expansion.

large stores (can be up to square feet) provide the quality necessary to be successful in the landscape of brick and mortar

On the value side, we can think of CAB as a business and a credit cards The sum-of-the parts of these two is significantly higher than the current value. Investors overlook the credit card but it is actually a very attractive

The company’s card is one of the top 15 most cards in the US, and has an average FICO of about 800. These make the card very to some of the major credit companies for an acquisition. Though I do not the company will sell the in the near future since the CFO from the credit card investors have brought up the of a credit card spin-off and action could occur in the

To warn investors, there is risk to the CAB story in the first-half of the The company will be coming up some very tough off of last year’s boom in the business. I don’t expect to fair as well this and we could see a sell-off occur of this, but I would be using any as a buying opportunity.

In the back-half of the the story will become too to ignore, and I expect the stock to the $75 price level by the end of 2014. I like the sporting goods of retail for 2014.

Google and Apple (AAPL )

Google has and continues to be, my largest holding. people think of GOOG as a company. I think of them as a estate company, and that estate is the internet ad space. As spending increases next so will advertising spending.

will be the single biggest of this trend. More spending will be allocated targeted online and mobile areas in which GOOG Android will also to take greater share of the smartphone/tablet market.

Though could be some choppiness always has been over the spending habits, but these to work over the long top technology, a best-in-class management and the top position in the online advertising make GOOG a name to own in any

When putting this together, I had a tough time on GOOG or Apple. I think are names any investor should but I decided on GOOG because of the opportunity. I wanted to point out in article that I would recommend AAPL as a buy.

Android is taking share, the is growing fast enough for of these companies to be winners. The Mobile (CHL ) agreement is a win for the company than most the new line of products has performed to date, and we might see greater of capital returned to shareholders 2014. Trading at only 12x earnings, I wouldn’t be surprised if got near the $700 level by the end of

I know I’m kind of on this one. If you made me to I’d be going with KB (KBH ) on this one, but I it would be more prudent for to create a basket a homebuilders for the year. Interest rates to rise combined with a overall economy creates the for a strong spring selling in 2014. The homebuilders have a great job of managing inventories and new units offline in the back of 2013, putting these in a position to take further on new homes in 2014.

Risks of rates scaring off buyers overblown as the 30-year rate is under 5%, and I expect the Fed to tighten than consensus thinking the end of the year instead of the first Names like Standard (SPF ), D.R. Horton ), Lennar (LEN ), and Ryland (RYL ), will all be beneficiaries of the demand + higher pricing selling season.

Small-Cap Services

As I noted in my recent JMP Group: Industry Tailwinds and Catalysts Should Boost 50% . we have seen a rebound in the IPO

Source: JMP Investor Presentation

like the one we are currently seeing last 2-3 years. What’s about this recent is that small-cap investment are taking a bigger piece of the most likely due to a greater of smaller-sized IPOs. In addition to trend, these small-cap services firms also from greater demand for research. If we look back at the business over the last of years, it has significantly underperformed.

has created a larger pool of investors that have assets under management and in-house resources. This the opportunity for a research firm on small caps to take share and a larger pool of now that the equity business has and inflows are positive, that are incentivized to obtain outside

Both of these trends, with asset management of their businesses that are from greater management as a result of equity inflows and performance, really benefit the cap names. Yet, when we a look at valuation, JMP Group ), Cowen Group (COWN ), FBR Co. ), and Oppenheimer Holdings (OPY ) at significant discounts to their I expect these companies to the industry, which will investors to re-value these more in line with the average.

Again, if I had to pick one go with JMP because of company-specific in the out years, but I think it would be for investors to make up a basket of names. I think small-cap will outperform large-caps as regulation kicks in and the fact larger banks have positioned their portfolios for rates, which may take to materialize than expected. If I to go into a large-cap financial I would choose BlackRock ) because of the growing trend ETFs.

I also still the mortgage servicing names, and Ocwen, for the coming year.

the world’s largest manufacturer of tile, has already seen an point in its business during but 2014 will be the year the much anticipated commercial in flooring helps boost business to new levels. Every flooring company has signaled a shift towards carpet as the preferred carpet product, and is the biggest beneficiary of this The company is poised to grow not only the upcoming rebound in spending, but also the move the high-end retail space in the US.

The company had no retail presence this move, creating the for market share gains as preferences shift to carpet This new retail business is now reaching break-even levels, so will also be the year we start to see profitability out of this business.

TILE trades at a to its competition, yet it has a cleaner balance and more upside from the to carpet tile. As the commercial starts to kick in during the company will be valued in line with its peers. I a year-end price target of

For more information on TILE, see my recent article .

ON Semiconductor (ONNN )

ON Semiconductor Corporation manufactures, and markets semiconductor for electronic systems and products The company operates in three Application Products Group, Products Group, and SANYO Products Group. ON Semiconductor a number of markets which all into the capital equipment including automotive, communications, medical, industrial, smart military/aerospace industries, industrial systems, LED lighting, power networking and telecom gear, and test equipment.

The company a comprehensive portfolio of energy power and signal management, discrete and custom solutions.

But ON has had its problems. In 2011, On Semi Sanyo Electronics for $918 and has struggled with this ever since. The division has losing money for the company its acquisition, dragging down the of the overall company. For several it seems as if management did not want to own up to poor acquisition, and bite the by cutting back on the size of the

Only recently has management the necessary and more dramatic to right size the Sanyo to bring it back to profitability. ON has announced a major restructuring of the division and expects the division’s to end in early 2014, and for the business to be by the 2nd half of 2014. As this takes hold, I believe On earnings could accelerate the expected 53 cents per share in to 67 cents in 2014, and $1 per share in

I believe ON Semi will see an inflection point in 2014, as margins begin to expand, and towards the company’s long-term of 17%, which translates to $1 per share in EPS by 2015. Applying a 14X to these earnings would a $14 stock price by 2015.

is a company which I believe is on the of a major upswing in earnings, as long-term RD initiatives finally go start up mode to growth and mode. ATMI supplies performance materials, materials and materials delivery systems for use in the Life Science E-Waste industries. For microelectronics it offers semiconductor performance materials; pressure gas delivery systems for handling and delivery of toxic and gases.

For Life Science, provides containment, mixing, and technologies to the biotechnology, laboratory, and therapy markets. For E-Waste ATMI provides technologies extract most metals electronic circuit boards at 99% efficiency, with greater 99% purity. The electronic components the boards can be reused or sold.

is primarily known as a microelectronics however they have two high growth divisions in Life Science which are on the of turning profitable, enabling the to grow at a much higher rate, while potentially their earnings per share the next two to three year By year-end 2014, I believe could appreciate over while longer term I the stock has the potential to double in The Life Science division possibly grow at a 20% to 30% growth and generate 15% operating margins. three years Life could generate $100M in for ATMI.

ATMI’s other division is their E-Waste which is called eVOLV. The has a technology which addresses the issue of electronic waste the world faces. Their can, in an environmentally safe extract most metals electronic waste (think circuit boards, cell computers) with a greater 99% extraction efficiency and a greater 99% purity. The company is in the midst of up licensing and royalty deals, are just now being implemented.

As these deals get under and more are announced, ATMI start to get recognition from the world. I believe that new partnership could add an additional to earnings. Finally, ATMI has they are seeking strategic for the company, which I believe result in a spinoff of the Life division, or the implementation of a major buyback (They have a over $4 a share in cash on the sheet and no debt, and as these divisions reach profitability, could do over $2 a share in cash flow annually).

I see potentially earning $2.03 in and $2.70 in 2015, which take the stock up to $40 next and into the mid 50s with a few years.

For information on ATMI, please see Bunge’s recent article .

Recovery is the little company the big technology. The company designs, and sells energy recovery (ERDs) that harness the energy from industrial flows and pressure cycles in the States and internationally. Its ERDs energy recovery devices and for water desalination; turbochargers for low-pressure brackish and high-pressure reverse osmosis systems; and ranging from high-pressure and single-stage centrifugal pumps to and high-speed pumps.

The company offers complete energy systems comprising turbines and pumps for oil and gas operators; and energy systems that enable oil and gas to capture hydraulic energy and electricity from high-pressure flows.

ERII traditionally has its own energy on building its business the desalination markets, which has a niche, choppy market to be in. In the total addressable market of the desalination industry is only million. About three ago, management realized needed to take their technology and find the bigger Management did just that over the last several they have been a proprietary solution for the oil and gas processing which is just now on the verge of up. I believe 2014 will be the year for ERII, as their of the last few years lead to orders within the oil gas industry.

indicated that the total market is about 1,200 equating to over $1 billion in revenue. ERII has been in testing with 3 large oil gas on 3 continents. Partners include, (SHI ), Saudi Aramco, and in which their IsoBoost reduced total energy by 25% or $2.5M per year on average in testing. The potential revenue is as the major oil gas companies have all over the world. I believe starting in 2014 ERII begin to licensing sign for their IsoBoost technology.

On ERII will receive for each deal, and the business command gross profit exceeding 55%. Although I am the company only earns .08 to .10 in 2014, I believe sometime the next several years, will hit an inflection point their business ramps and they have the possibility of .45 to .55 cents by 2015. Applying a 30X to potential 2015 EPS of $0.50 me a 24-month price target of

I expect the stock to begin move in 2014 as these are signed.

It’s been a year for LSB Industries — two went offline due to an explosion and a rupture, which led to capacity that had an impact on operating and forced the company to buy ammonia on the market for 3x the cost of what the can produce it for by themselves. But, is shaping up to be the year that the gets back on track and a positive runway in its business for the several years.

Audi A1 e-tron

The plants were damaged are now back which will boost in 2014 as compared to 2013. of the company’s main businesses, control and chemicals, have recent growth. In chemicals of revenue), management recently during their conference that both UAM production and Plant production for the balance of are sold out.

What’s more important, thinks that they already passed the through in business (from a combination of falling offline and pricing), and now the plant capacity coming online after the repairs, we see growth in the business going In the climate control business, the will benefit from a spending rebound, and do over in revenue and over $1.50 per in operating income in 2014.

the climate control segment as a business would trade at a higher multiple than the chemical business that LXU’s company multiple. has noted several times in the that there are not many between the chemicals and climate businesses, and that they look to sell the climate business at some point. looking at comparable multiples for business, it seems like a or sale of the unit could in north of $20 per share.

This, with almost $5 per share of coming in from insurance means that the company receive cash proceeds equal more than 75% of the market cap over the next 12

I expect growth to kick in the coming year for LXU, and for the to beat current consensus Furthermore, once the expansion of the El plant is completed in 2015, and the has 180,000 more tons of capacity than is currently the company will be able to about $10MM in costs associated to not having to purchase on the open market, and will be to grow revenues by $90-$100MM selling excess capacity). conservative organic growth the next two years, I get a full-year estimate of $5.50 per share 250% EPS growth from the levels of 2013).

I have a 2014 price target of but believe there is much upside to the story longer

For more information on LXU, see my recent article .

UQM Technologies ) and Quantum Fuel Systems )

I put these two companies in a basket as play on the theme of increased in clean energy vehicles. I UQM and QTWW as they both company-specific catalysts that kick in during 2014, and companies service much markets.

2014 will be the that UQM Technologies, the developer and of power dense, high electric motors, announces a contract with Audi or Audi has been testing UQM in the A1 e-tron for some time The Audi team is very about the success thus far and is next steps internally, for UQM provided additional data 2013. Saab is back on financial footing, and has already that there will be a at the company on the electric vehicle 2014.

Along with and Saab, the company could contracts from Zenith for its all-electric shuttle van, for its 37-foot bus, or announce a contract in China.

Government helps this push. The government has adopted new regulations fuel economy standards to and heavy-duty trucks for the first beginning with model 2014. CAFE standards increase the average fuel of each manufacturer’s passenger car and truck model offerings to miles per gallon by 2016 and miles per gallon by 2025. In to this, the U.S. Government has a goal of one million electric on the road by 2015 and President has announced a directive to government to ensure that by 2015, all new they purchase are alternative-fuel including hybrid and electric

The Federal government operates a of more than 600,000 These initiatives, along elevated gas prices, will UQM get a major contract during the 12 months.

For QTWW, CNG fueling reach an inflection point 2014 and the company is more doubling is capacity due to end-market Expect a big year in 2014 as the reaches profitability.

For more information on QTWW, see my recent article .

2014 be the year that company’s up and spend capex on fuel technology. With less ways to use cash, the value of this technology becomes too to ignore. There are other you could play in this but I’m going with because I also believe 2014 will be the year the announces a major energy contract with a utility, likely Enbridge (ENB ) who 13% of HYGS.

HYGS management has stated that they to reach break-even levels in which should alleviate concerns, but I expect the company to do better. They are currently over 80% on the contracts awarded in for energy storage. Right there is not much competition, but competition grows, HYGS becomes a very attractive target for a bigger company to enter the business.

As alternative vehicles start to make traction, HYGS will benefit from increased fueling stations. All of these above start to kick in and I expect HYGS to be one of the biggest

For more information on HYGS, see my recent article .


I wanted to quickly highlight names/ideas that just the cut:

Whole Foods (WFM ) — I think the is overdone, and even though I some of the other healthy could struggles, WFM will be the winner in the space. Another I continue to like in the high-growth and beverage space is Starbucks ).

For more information on WFM, see my recent article .

American (AEO ) — I’m not a big fan of retail going into the new but the teen space has had a very 2013. Though the space continue to be promotional in the short I see American Eagle as the name will come out of this in the best position. The company offers a 3.5% dividend at its current levels.

This is a back-half of 2014 story.

Inc (PRFT ) — As capex increases, a larger share of dollars will find way to IT solutions and software. I am bullish on the IT space, and believe that is the best way to play it.

For more on PRFT, please see my recent .

Increased Mobile/Tablet Data — Smart phones and are now commonplace, but because of the rollout of 4G, we are in the stages of a shift in the way we use these Digital content (music/videos/work-related will only increase now we have better bandwidth 4G will continue to be rolled out the United States during

The problem is, as our usage of data on devices increases, it will put a burden on the network. Furthermore, plans are becoming costly now unlimited data is not an option on networks (something Europe is to regulate). Companies that users stay connected, smart wi-fi solutions, and that help improve quality, like small providers, will be very going forward.

I left idea off my list because I not yet targeted the right name to this trend, but I do believe this will be one of the major we hear about throughout

2014 will most be an up-and-down year for the markets, but good stocks will investors to make outsized The year of the capex revitalization is upon us, and I am encouraging investors to their portfolio accordingly.

Audi A1 e-tron
Audi A1 e-tron
Audi A1 e-tron
Audi A1 e-tron


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