AntiHype In LithiumIon Batteries Foretells Doom For Electric Cars Seeking Alpha

1 мая 2014 | Author: | Комментарии к записи AntiHype In LithiumIon Batteries Foretells Doom For Electric Cars Seeking Alpha отключены
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Anti-Hype In Lithium-Ion Batteries Doom For Electric Cars

billions of dollars in private and public subsidies, lithium-ion technology has progressed at a snail’s for years and battery developers recently started to emphasize the of baby steps. For the first in memory, anti-hype is becoming a theme in stories about batteries.

Examples from month include:

An interview Wards Auto where the manager of the DOE’s Kentucky-Argonne Manufacturing Research and Development explained that it takes ten years to put a battery innovation production and all of today’s EVs are powered by that were developed at a decade ago.

An article National Defense which that lithium-ion battery will soon hit a brick because batteries can only be as and lightweight as their materials and immutable laws of physics and limit the number of electrons can be stored in a given mass of material.

An article in Nature discussed ways nanotechnology can battery performance by increasing area, but took pains to that nano-materials must be in carefully controlled environments and the cost of manufacturing nano-materials outweighs the benefits derived using them.

An article in Design News focused on the harsh reality battery development is hard, work because batteries a wide variety of costly to work together as a system; are limitless ways that can go wrong; and throwing loads of at research can’t make happen overnight.

An article in Management World that the complex technical and economic that must be overcome lithium-ion battery recycling can beyond a few pilot plants and a cost-effective industrial reality, as to a hopium-laced talking point.

An in the MIT Technology Review that like a premature obituary as it the triumphs and tragedies at A123 (AONE) and their ongoing for strategic alternatives.

My personal is a strategy memo from the Alliance for Advanced Technology that focuses on the problems at Systems and the failures of Ener1 ) and International Battery. It’s spin control that blames the debacle on government Since the irony is so rich, annotate the last three by highlighting text that I particularly entertaining in bold and adding some observations [in


If criticism intensifies, which is it will be important to communicate an point: Government funding of new technologies is meant to support technologies, not the companies that them [or the investors who bought the that’s part and parcel of support]. The failures of Ener1 and Battery, and the troubles of A123 are business failures, not technology Companies come and go. Corporate get bought, sold and reorganized investors lose their None of that should to taxpayers.

What should is whether the technologies that and Ener1 owned at the time received their grants has advanced and pushed closer to [while politicians promised products]. Indications in both are that they have [but unsubsidized demand materialized].

If the FOA-26 program can be criticized for it is that the program focused on immediate deployment of advanced battery technology rather its longer term development. pointed that out at the time we were lambasted as neo-luddites]. The predictable] problems at A123 and the failures of Ener1 and International are powerful testimony to the fact the market for that technology in was critically immature [just the underlying technology].

A better use of the would clearly have investing them in the development of next-generation battery technologies could facilitate the development of a for advanced automotive batteries in the rather than cater to one did not fully exist.

In fairness to the of Energy, the emphasis on immediate and “getting shovels in the ground” was a directive motivated by a critical crisis, not a considered policy As a consequence, DOE funding of advanced technology over the past years has not been as efficient as it have been. But that is not to say it has been a failure. Steady on increasing energy density, battery cost and improving system management continues to be [at a snail’s pace].

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The market we hoped for in 2009 is not yet and some of the original players in the may not make it to the finish. But that is substantially closer than it was years ago, and by that the success or failure of the FOA-26 is more properly judged.

The message of this new anti-hype is clear. The promised improvements in battery technology have not and they’re not likely to evolve existing technology and architecture. We may see a of energy density over the decade, but the six- to seven-fold that Energy Secretary Chu has for are not possible with current The dream of quantum leaps in accompanied by precipitous cost is not in the cards, or for that matter on the

Breathless promises of cost-effective cars that will the air and deliver us from the tyranny of oil are snake oil cures that enrich the hucksters for a time, but end in feathers and a ride out of town on a

Battery mythology developed for the purpose of supporting electric car Battery developers tried and failed. Now battery developers are shelter from the backlash inevitably comes back to companies and industries that more than they can The next dominoes are companies Tesla Motors (TSLA ) can’t possibly build electric vehicles without and cheaper batteries.

Tesla may for a time by making toys for the committed and mathematically challenged but the congenital birth defect doomed every generation of cars to the scrap heap

The electric car industry can’t without a thriving and profitable industry that can make that meet or exceed The battery industry is on record they can’t meet the goals they embraced in the past. Things might in my lifetime, but the change is not going to in the next decade.

Meanwhile the real auto is digging into its toolbox and implementing technologies that cost-effective in another economic era but are

Disclosure: None

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