Electric Vehicles The Prospects The History before the Future

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II. Electric Vehicles — The

The History before the Future

As in the primer above. fully vehicles are not entirely new. As to the current prospects for EVs, we on the two noteworthy prior introductions of vehicles in the U.S. — the streetcars of the 1920s and GM’s EV1 in California in the early 1990s. By popular reports, both of efforts met their demise in large part, to commercial that were antagonistic to the success of the electric vehicle.

more than ninety ago, fully electric had come to populate upwards of 100 cities. Then, as reported by Boschert in Plug-In Hybrids, GM, Oil and Firestone colluded in order to the popular electric streetcar. The companies formed a front (National City Lines) bought up the private streetcar in 80 U.S. cities and closed down, presumably to pave the way for a gasoline-highway centric future, would be more aligned their commercial interests.

the GM executives involved were in an antitrust investigation. 1

Second, years ago, in September the California Air Resources Board set in motion a zero emissions (ZEV) mandate that led to the of electric vehicles from a of major automakers. 2 GM’s was to introduce into the California a fully electric car of some called the “EV1”. The story of the its appealing performance, its consumer and the intriguing details of its early are told in the video Who Killed the Car . 3 The superior driving performance of the EV1 and its non-polluting nature led to quick in California and a substantial wait Yet, even during the and initial manufacturing period, lobbying muscle was exercised in campaigns by interested parties the ZEV mandate. By the time of the EV1’s the CARB succumbed to pressures to the critical portions of the ZEV mandate.

Perhaps with a degree of GM declined to fill their orders for the EV1 by selling the vehicles and made them available a lease. Once the mandate as leases expired, GM declined to them. In total, GM retired all 800 of the that were out on lease, and destroyed them.

This despite public protests by the and other electric car supporters in

A key supplier to the effort had been Conversion Devices (ECD), the of the then cutting-edge battery (nickel metal hydrideNiMH) in these vehicles. GM partnered ECD, acquired 60% share, (others have suggested) the development and marketing of the batteries, selling their majority to Texaco in 2001. Texaco the NiMH patent control a company called Cobasys.

Boschert and others have Texaco’s commercial intentions. By most all-electric car programs at the auto manufacturers were

The Current Outlook

Today, has changed. From the technical and side, we have the next of battery technology (lithium and new battery suppliers, and we have new EV manufacturers along with the auto manufacturer who are each at least one EV or PHEV. From the and regulatory side, we have federal support for the EV sector purchase subsidies and grants and we increasing coordination internationally to lower greenhouse gas emissions.

And perhaps most importantly the consumer side, we have far consumer awareness of climate peril and we have10 years of acceptance of the HEVs.

Yet, remain. Traditional gas engine express concern about the range and the ability to charge the regularly and conveniently. Commercial and interests need to proactively their investments in remote stations. 4 At today’s single structure for residential electricity the cost to charge an EV far exceeds the and healthy margin that need to recoup. But in time, will recognize that to real-time pricing tariffs accelerate EV demand for their excess power generation.

the utilities may experience regulatory to adopt real-time pricing of (peak daytime rates lower off-peak nighttime 5 Coordinated efforts toward in the electric grid will help. 6 And as more renewable sources feed into the grid, off-peak charging by EVs help create demand for while retired EV batteries can to serve as storage for utilities and customers. 7

All things considered, we the significant adoption of EVs in the U.S. as necessity. When you look at the for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is that the main U.S. must be on transportation and electric generation and consumption. This lead directly to EVs. vehicles are the most viable would say only) means of transportation emissions significantly. EVs provide a critical lynchpin the transportation and utility sectors, can help drive the utilities rational pricing and emissions

When you see the presence of new entrant EV like Tesla and Fisker, you can that the entrenched incumbents not able to impede the new generation of When you observe the advances in technology already achieved in of the EV, you can foresee continued advances will increase EV driving and attractiveness. When you consider the possibility that oil prices be higher in the future, you know cost-effectiveness and appeal of EVs will proportionately. When you look at the history of growing hybrid in the U.S. you see that EVs no longer to face consumer fear of novelty. And finally, as we all can see, the of global climate change our daily lives from the to newsroom to the bedroom.

At the margin, individuals are willing to take responsibility for their direct to greenhouse gas emissions.

When we all thingsthe prospect for electric is not IF. It is not even WHEN. It is only HOW

Announced and Projected EV Introductions.

auto manufacturers, including new entrants, are planning announced EVs or for the U.S. market. The table summarizes some of their entry points.

Expected of EVs


TESLA Roadster: all electric sports car

PRIUS market conversion kit to make it a


Nissan LEAF EV out in volumes, with mass expected in 2012

GM Volt 2010 launch

BYD (Chinese Manufacturer) e6 sedan in the U.S. to be by a full slate of EVs

Fisker expected to launch plug-in hybrid performance car; to be followed by the Nina, a sedan

Coda Automotive by fall they expect to selling EVs manufactured in China by


Tesla expected to Model S, four-seat sedan, EV.

is expected to launch the plug-in of the popular Prius

Ford launch an electric version of its Focus sedan

Nissan to have three additional (to the production EVs


Ford launch a plug-in hybrid SUV

has said they will a plug-in hybrid in 2012

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to launch the Smart ED EV

BMW to launch a city EV

Volvo to a plug-in version of its C30


Bright to launch their Idea, utility van, for commercial

By 2020

Toyota hopes to a conventional hybrid option on its entire line

Beyond the passenger vehicle market

transportation and fleets . In our above and Prospects, we have focused on the passenger vehicle market that remains the central prize for most EV related players. However, EVs models are being developed for light- and vehicles. Moreover, fleet in many locals, may be preferred of EVs. As commercial customers of the fleet operators may already be on tariff schedules or may be able to specific off-peak schedules will substantially enhance the efficiency of charging EVs in their Also, fleet operators have a reliable projection of the expected for each vehicle’s use day.

This will allow to schedule EV usage to avoid any with possible limited range. Another new entrant, Automotive, is targeting its plug-hybrid vehicle at the light utility van and specifically at commercial fleets.

. Pollution arising from cities in the developing world is not a threat to eventual global In many of the developing country centers, the air quality resulting transportation emissions imperils the health of today’s occupants. In cases, their polluting are not expected to handle the excess range that U.S. have preferred. And, in cases the vehicles are more in size (three-wheeled jitneys and or motor scooters) and don’t the considerable dead weight of vehicles in the U.S. market. The factor and these two differences to the market, suggest we can see material for local versions of EV outside the

Already, as of 2009, India’s is the widest selling electric car in the It is a city car manufactured by REVA Car Company and sold in 24 countries but not the as it does not currently meet safety standards.

Europe has relied on diesel, with its mileage to gasoline, as part of its at limiting total green gas emissions. However, Europe is an active market for EVs. A proportion of REVA’s EV sales are in The REVAi is offered in London, as the G-Wiz.

In addition, several manufacturers have announced EV models for the U.S. market and are to announce European versions as

1 “Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Vehicles on Electric Utilities and U.S. Power Grids: 2: Economic Assessment” November, p 11, Pacific Northwest National operated for the U.S. Dept of

2 In September 1990 the California Air Board (CARB) mandated companies selling cars in the of California would need to 2% zero emissions vehicles by 1998, 5% by 2001, and 10% by 2003.

4 we need to think about EVs we have new construction of parking Perhaps we need a building requiring all new construction of garages to the relevant pre-wiring, as it is 1/5th the versus retrofitting.

5 This motivate usage patterns will minimize peak requirements. It will also be a for electric vehicles if consumers the opportunity to charge at the marginal rates of nighttime electricity price) versus the average of 10-11c kWh.

6 Electric load distribution planning, of the local distribution transformers currently handles about 10

7 While to total percentage of solar and Hydro is still at 9%. There is hopein 2009 wind accounted for 42% of all new electricity

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