Global market review of hybrids and electricdrive vehicles forecasts …

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Global market review of and electric-drive vehicles- forecasts to — A report

article was extracted from the report, ‘Global review of hybrids and electric-drive forecasts to 2015’.

Electrical for vehicles and the rate at which it displace the burning of fossil remains a question subject to uncertainties. This is just-auto’s global market review of and electric drive technology ). With these set to dominate alternative propulsion and the for better fuel efficiency the short-term future, this provides a timely review of the technologies from the main our analysis of market take-up and a of the different technologies and where are heading.

In this new report, produced for just-auto, John the outlook for hybrids and electric-drive out to 2015. In this extract, the published report, he considers the surrounding volume projections:

In a global market that saw than 20% of its volume evaporate the last year, making can be viewed as a fool’s game. OEMs now hesitate to give for monthly vehicle sales, less the numbers of electric-drive over the next five And the political sensitivity around makers’ intentions to comply government policies that, in cases, don’t yet exist their executives are hardly to go on the record.

More than such reports, this includes material from with those OEMs is to be used on background only. just-auto spoke to GM, Ford, and Tesla, among others, material in this report go unattributed. We have fleshed out the and filled in the blanks with the plans, anticipated actions, and a of educated guesses and hints vehicle makers, suppliers and

Conventional hybrid-electric vehicles a good baseline.

As the first vehicles sold with battery packs since 1930, they were exotic in 1997 and are still toward mass-market acceptance. taken them ten years to 2.5% of the US market; at roughly 1% their penetration is far lower in other global region. industry analysts expect hybrids and battery-electric vehicles to a roughly similar growth though aggressive government to subsidise plug-ins may increase take-up by compensating for the high

of the battery packs over the few years. While start-stop or systems seem likely to rapidly over the next few we have not included projections for in this report—because they do not use battery packs.

So how fast will hybrids, and electric vehicles increase total share over the few years?

Taking a rough among the various projections we for 2020 — five beyond the scope of this — suggests that

for the market as a whole, conventional or power-split) hybrids such as the Toyota Prius will approximately 20% of vehicle production. vehicles, however, will just 6%, approximately split pure battery-electrics (with of up to 200 miles), plug-in hybrids and extended-range EVs (‘series’ hybrids).

it is likely that diesel’s of the world market will to fall, as it seems likely not to a footprint for light vehicles in (particularly China) or North

Finally, it’s worth that natural-gas vehicles may as much as 2% of the global market, much greater numbers in

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regions where natural gas is as a road fuel.

As for the closer covered by this report from now through model 2015 — penetration will have only begun to make a noticeable in gasoline dominance. Hybrids likely to grow from current 1% of global production to representing 3m vehicles of a total of 70m. Leaders here are to be Toyota and General Motors, by Honda, Ford, and Volkswagen.

But in both hybrid and pure varieties, will make up 1% or of the global market — than 1m units a year in — as the cost of high battery packs continues to substantial government subsidies to be by actual consumers.

This conclusion is supported by 1 at the end of this chapter, based on industry interviews and market It is worth noting that data will likely be once we see when and how the current stabilises.

It is this high cost that causes predictions to vary over a wide range. At one end of the spectrum is we will call the ‘electro-sceptics’, who the IC engine will remain — albeit with far fuel consumption — the next half-century. At the other end are we term ‘green optimists’, who see technology advances, rising oil and greater public awareness increasing market demand for vehicles.

In the end, two factors to the automotive industry, will the rate at which electric-drive can be built and sold: the cost of a of oil, and the degree to which policies—both regionally and globally— a cost on the emission of carbon. given the industry’s long times, vehicle makers all the globe must place bets on core technologies for the decade before those have come clear.


This article was from the full ‘Global market review of and electric-drive vehicles- forecasts to

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