Haq’s Musings China’s Electric Ambitions

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Thursday, April 2, 2009

Electric Ambitions

With poised to surpass the United as the world’s largest automobile this year, the Chinese has announced plans to help the leapfrog Japan to become the producer of all-electric and hybrid in the world. By committing to electric production, China is also to reduce urban air pollution, emissions and growing dependence on oil.

Even as the world slowing demand for automobiles, sales in China and India jumped last month by 25% and 22%

Monthly demand for automobiles in the two most populous countries had rising by double-digits in the first of 2008 as a growing middle-class the fruits of a booming global Then the credit crisis and demand slowed. But the governments in the two nations have since out incentives to reverse that helping year-over-year sales.

China is behind the United Japan and other countries it comes to making gas-powered but by skipping the current technology, hopes to get a jump on the next, to the New York Times.

The new auto-industry published on the main Web site of central government, said aims to build capacity to 500,000 new energy vehicles, as all-electric battery cars and electric hybrid vehicles. The aims to increase sales of new-energy cars to account for 5% of China’s passenger vehicle

The new package, which is supposed to auto-industry stimulus steps in January, is designed to keep sales in the world’s second-biggest car growing at an average of 10% annually the next three years, the said.

Beyond manufacturing, of up to $8,800 are being offered to fleets and local government in 13 Chinese cities for each or all-electric vehicle they The state electricity grid has ordered to set up electric car charging in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin.

The 10% target is considered ambitious by analysts, but if China succeeds, it have auto sales of over 10 million units year, and could displace the as the world’s biggest auto by unit sales, according to the Street Journal.

U.S.-based firm CSM Worldwide forecasts overall vehicle sales to by 6% to 7% to about 10 million vehicles. 10% growth in overall vehicles this year will not be so given the slowdown in China’s economy, said Yale a Shanghai-based senior analyst at

In comparison with the rest of the the Chinese market for automobiles to be relatively robust. Monthly sales in China surpassed in the U.S. for the first time in but automakers and industry watchers say the may tell us more about the in the U.S. than about growing car market, says a published in San Francisco Chronicle .

Data released in February by the Association of Automobile Manufacturers 735,000 new cars were in China last month, 14.4 percent from the of 860,000 set in January 2008. sales, meanwhile, fell 37 to 656,976 vehicles a 26-year Some analysts believe sales may fall to about 10 vehicles this year.

The announcement also reiterated determination to consolidate the country’s auto sector, which has than 80 auto makers the country. The government wants a industry with fewer companies each generating larger sales volumes.

The central government wants to the auto industry through and acquisitions into fewer 10 groups of manufacturers, down the current 14, according to the announcement. The said the government would FAW Group Corp. Dongfeng Corp.

SAIC Motor and Changan Automobile (Group) Co. others, to implement mergers and around the country to form auto groups.

Like Indian auto sales also seen significant in the last few years, but the Indian market is much smaller. Motors has recently launched its Nano minicar to revive in the midst of a slowdown by aiming at the upgrade market. With a price of about $1,945, doesn’t include dealer and other charges that will pay, the Nano be one of the world’s cheapest cars.

The industry in India the tenth in the world with an annual of 2 million units last is expected to become one of the major automotive industries in the future. A of domestic companies produce in India and the growing presence of investment, too, has led to an increase in growth. Following the economic of 1991 the Indian automotive has demonstrated sustained growth as a of increased competitiveness and reduced

The monthly sales of passenger in India exceed 100,000 according to a related Wikipedia

In Pakistan, Engineering Development (EDB) is attempting to increase the GDP of the automotive sector to 5.6%, car production capacity to half a units as well as attract an of US$ 3 billion and reach an auto target of US$ 650 million.

In addition to the defense industry. auto can become a driving force for the needed manufacturing industrial in Pakistan to create significant opportunities for its large population. year, the auto sector US$ 3.6 billion, only about 2% of the to the national economy, and employed 192,000 people.

Pakistan’s parts manufacturing is a billion US a year industry. Sixty of its output goes to the motor industry, 22% is for cars, and the rest is by trucks, buses tractors.

a significant growth spurt in the auto sector is feeling the of economic slow-down in Pakistan. The is continuing in a slump which in the previous financial year and to Business Monitor International recently published Pakistan Report. the industry s performance year will get worse. In which ended in June total vehicle sales by 6.2%.

The downturn carried over FY09, with sales for the half of the year (July to 2008) down by 48% year-on-year to units for cars and light vehicles (LCVs), while with November, sales for were down 55%. results support BMI s forecast for a in sales of cars and LCVs to 112,000 units in FY09. BMI the total auto market in to contract by over 32%, the worst damage done in the car and bus which is forecast to fall by 45% Pakistan s Economic Co-ordination (ECC) is to consider a tax cut of 10% for domestic car which has been proposed by the of Industries and Production. However, the is not without its opposition, as the Federal of Revenue is reportedly against individual sectors as this prompt other industries to help.

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Moreover, with five carmakers producing the automotive industry is relatively On the other hand, the industry is largely self-sufficient as the majority of its is sold within Pakistan; reduces the country s reliance on and raises issues such as the of local jobs and the industry s to the overall economy.

Among the automakers, Indus and Pakistan Suzuki reported earnings: The two leading car assemblers and INDUS posted positive for 2008. PSMC reported losses of Rs 399 million. However, in other income by 77 percent their losses helping post positive earnings of Rs 26 according to Daily Times.

posted a loss after tax of Rs 190 for the period July-December 2008 a decline in net sales by 5 percent and a surge in operating expenses the corresponding period last

The poor state of the industry is in BMI s Business Environment Rating for the industry in Asia Pacific, Pakistan is in last place on a of 42.4 out of a possible 100. The is held back by low production potential and an average rating for growth. However, as a signatory to the Related Intellectual Property Agreement (TRIPS) under the of the World Trade Organization the country s regulatory environment well.

A number of free agreements also contribute to criterion, although forming with non-Asian countries improve this rating Despite low marks for bureaucracy and the market does score for its long-term economic risk and continuity.

With just a of manufacturers, Pakistan s competitive remains narrow. Japanese car control most of the country s car production and sales. Figures for show that Suzuki-brand represented 62% of total Pakistani car production and 51.7% of sales.

Toyota is gaining, however, Corolla becoming the country s model in the first half of

According to Daily Times, as as 60,000 workers and staffers in auto sector have their jobs from 2008 to January, 2009 due to demand for cars. More cuts are feared with weakness in demand.

Given underlying growth dynamics in Asia, the negative feedback of the global financial crisis are to be temporary. A relatively rapid is expected in 2010, with a revival of GDP growth to 7.2 per cent. The term prospects for the auto in the continent of Asia appear to be favorable.

As the current financial ebbs, there will be pent-up demand for automobiles in including India, Pakistan and that will drive the in auto industry.


Auto Industry Prospects in Pakistan and China

Pakistan Report 2009

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