Innovation Lessons from the Rise of Tesla Motors The Discipline of Innovation

14 Июн 2014 | Author: | Комментарии к записи Innovation Lessons from the Rise of Tesla Motors The Discipline of Innovation отключены
Interesting » Electric Cars

Innovation Lessons from the of Tesla Motors

How to make change look like a big

One of the big privileges in my job is that I get to travel a bit. As part of this, I ve coming to Palo Alto once a year for the past years.  This is interesting that is infrequent enough the changes that look to those that live look like jumps to me I m here so irregularly.

The big jump I ve on this current trip is electric cars are finally off.

On previous trips, I saw of Tesla cars all in showrooms. trip, they re on the road:

And it s not Teslas.  The place I stay has had reserved parking for electric cars since  Previously, I haven t seen any in them.  On this trip, re taken, and they re using the stations:

Observing the Lead

Jean-Louis Gassée wrote a interesting post on Tesla week.  In it, he talks about how Alto has always been a indicator of where green are heading:

Walking Palo Alto’s streets in the early 2000s, I the rise of the Prius.  Rather grafting “green” organs a Camry or a disinterred Tercel, engineers had designed a hybrid the tires up…and they the car a distinctive, sui generis look. It was a of genius, and it tickled us green. better way to flaunt our concern for the while showing off our discerning taste than to be spotted the wheel of a Prius? (I write without irony: I owned a Gen I and a Gen II and drive a Prius V in France.) Alto was Prius City before the rest of the world on. (Prius is now the third best-selling car more than a million sold in 2012.)

The Prius is interesting, because when first came out, the was very similar to what we re about Tesla now. car was too expensive, it was elitist, it would sell to radical greenies, and so on.   And now it s the best-selling car in the world. 

I don t know if will ever get to that but it is definitely moving electric along the innovation diffusion .

Innovation Diffusion Lessons Tesla

This diagram how innovation diffusion usually  New ideas spread an S-Curve the solid line in the or if they fail they the curve marked B.  But there s a lot of hype around an we expect it to follow the curve A.  Incumbents that think have a lot of time to respond the new idea to follow the curve C.

But new ideas that succeed don t any of these curves the follow the S

We can see why by looking at Tesla and the other cars that are just to take off.  Here are of the lessons:

New ideas spread more slowly than we .  The first electric car was back in the 19th century, there was a dominant design for  GM introduced the EV1 in 1996 seventeen ago.  That made expect electric vehicles to off it s where the hype really

 But new ideas spread the time value for X is always than we expect it to be.

Disruptions start in niches . the Prius came out, it was expensive.  Gassée s recounting is accurate it first took with people that willing to pay a bit more to show off greenness.  But it eventually from that niche.  He that Tesla will do the

The numbers point to a future Tesla can leave its niche and a leading manufacturer in a too-often automotive industry. And, of we Silicon Valley geeks great pleasure in a car that it software over the air, a smartphone; that has a 17 touchscreen; and designed and built right (the Tesla factory is the Bay in the NUMMI plant that was occupied by Toyota and GM).

It time to work out the business .  One of the reasons that the for X is longer than we expect is it takes time to learn how to the new idea work.  A big part of is building a good business around it.  Farhad Manjoo Tesla to Apple, and he explains how business model is evolving:

Interesting » Electric Cars

But even though its prices competitive, Apple was able to its profits high, thanks to manufacturing efficiencies.

Now Tesla to be following the same path. At the Model S, its family sedan, is a very expensive car, but far cheaper than the $109,000 that Tesla launched in This week, the company that in the first quarter of it earned its first-ever corporate It sold 5,000 cars in Q1, and its of orders is growing by 20,000 per Part of the reason Tesla has profitable, Musk explained in a letter, is by making its production more efficient.

Among things, the company reduced the of time it takes to build a car by 40 Over the long run, aims to keep lowering the of its cars—he’s hoping to release a car in the next three or four keeping the company’s gross margin at 25 percent, which is high for the car industry.

Slow makes it easy to mock new . All of this comes together to how it is pretty easy to mock a new the first stage of responding to a innovation. followed by aggression, and getting smashed like a

Steven Johnson made the comparison first. and this from him pulls all of these together:

The question is whether is the Apple of 1985 or the Apple of

Tesla critics  tend to see it as the a luxury car maker for people who the spare change to experiment ultimately impractical electric The Roadster and the Model S, in this are the automotive equivalent of the original an expensive experiment that never capture a mass The believers see Tesla as closer to right before the launch of the a company about to help (and profit from) a sea change in consumer behavior.

In part, those two alternatives come down to a single, question: how close are we to the obsolescence for combustion engines? Most assume that we are not very indeed. Warren Buffett thinks all cars on the road be electric by 2030, but most assume it will take us long just to get to 50% EV penetration. But if Buffet is correct, and the EV tipping is right in front of us?

What if Buffet is underestimating the of change?

I think Buffett is  It looks to me like we re starting to hit the point.  The analysts are that electric vehicles are to follow curve C.  But of innovation know that will follow the S-Curve.

to get ready for your electric  And I guess we can start for flying cars next maybe that s how I ll do my traveling in the

Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars
Interesting » Electric Cars

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