Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Has Tesla Solved The Road Trip Problem? Seeking Alpha

15 Июн 2014 | Author: | Комментарии к записи Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Has Tesla Solved The Road Trip Problem? Seeking Alpha отключены
Interesting » Electric Cars

Has Tesla Solved The Road Problem?

Tesla Motors ) must deliver an electric car trip solution equivalent to ICE cars or they will be making specialty electric and never generate the returns of their investors hope

Tesla has come a long way delivering Model S cars in Dan Neil of the Wall Street said, Model S goes the very stink of hell, factory is working, orders in, and CEO Elon Musk tweeted profit. Tesla will deliver 20,000 cars in

An optimist looking at reservations imagine 30,000 Teslas year.

Given an ASP of $80k a Tesla’s 2013 car business like $1.6 to $2.4 Throw in another $200 for drivetrains and services and this top line might go as high as billion. If Tesla achieves 25% margins and brings 10% to the bottom they might conceivably $260 million. With at $34.52, and a $3.93 billion cap, that’s a 15.1 PE. this with PEs of 9.6 for Ford (F ) and BMW ), 9.3 for Daimler (DDAIF:US), 7.7 for General (GM ) and it’s hard to get excited Tesla stock.

An investor might even go and quite a few have.

Interest in is not about where they but about where they are If Tesla disrupts the car business, could end up selling 5 million cars a year at a $40k and if they bring 10% to the bottom and have a PE of 9, their share will be a tidy $1,582.70. at the current price will see a return.

This is why the ‘longs’ buy the ‘shorts’ sell.

Owning stock is a bet on where they are Shorting the stock is a bet they arrive. Smart investing figuring out if they will it. To make it, Tesla must mainstream cars and mainstream do road trips.

So investors need to know if can make a road trip as and conveniently in a Tesla as in an ICE car and if other will solve the electric car trip problem too, Tesla’s competitive advantage.

To if electric cars will we will look at several taking a 360 mile road figuring travel time as a of driving speed, including the needed to stop and charge. How times compare will us how close Tesla is to solving the trip problem, how their Gen III cars will work the trip problem better, and how manufacturers’ small battery cars and Level III charging with Tesla’s road solution. But first, some about the model.

Three and sixty miles is a real trip, say San Clemente, Ca to Mammoth for a weekend of skiing: 354 mi . Two 360 mile are a day’s drive crossing the US, say the Park City, UT Holiday Inn to the NE Holiday Inn: 727 mi . It is the kind of trip thousands of ICE cars every day, that electric cars can’t

Yes, Tesla’s Model S can trips this long, but in those few areas where stations exist. Tesla offers a trip time on their website. Our model from Tesla’s online for reasons discussed at the end of the article but the are similar.

For baseline we’ll use an ICE car to drive the 360 miles at any speed 55 and 85 MPH and assume the driver makes one of 30 minutes during the 360 mile This is real world with an ICE car.

The Nissan (OTC:NSANY ) LEAF represent a short range EV uses Level III fast Two Tesla cars, the Model S (85 kWh and the BlueStar (56 kWh battery) will let us Tesla’s road trip Model S is Tesla’s current BlueStar is Tesla’s Gen III car.

Interesting » Electric Cars

In an article I describe a potential car.

BlueStar is aimed at the BMW 3 is smaller than Model S and will use next generation batteries. In our model BlueStar use upgraded 120 kW SuperCharger stations during Tesla’s SuperCharger event). BlueStar, with a battery and using the 120kW recharges twice as fast as S (50% charge in

15 minutes for vs 50% charge in

30 minutes for Model S).

We model EVs like the Ford EV that use slower, Level II because slow charging road trips impractical, nor did we range extended EVs like the Cadillac ELR, Fisker and Prius Plug-in because perform (and burn like the baseline ICE car.

EVs start off with the highest recommended when rapid — 80% full battery for the and 77% full battery for the Tesla S and BlueStar. Charging stations are along the route so that, moderate air conditioning, the cars can it from one charger to the next at the modeled highway speed miles between chargers and 85 MPH for the cars, 45 miles between and 70 MPH for the LEAF). Electric cars and recharge at each charging

Calculating the stop time for our model allows 1 minute to the highway and plug in to the charger, to charge to the maximum recommended assuming 90% of the charger rated is stored in the battery, and then one to unplug and return to the highway.

The following table lists the The range listed for the electric assumes starting with the recommended charge for rapid and moderate HVAC use. The of range values reflects at different highway speeds (55 70 MPH for the LEAF and 55 — 85 MPH for the Tesla

Comparison Cars — 360 Road Trip


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