The Electric Car Industry

26 Мар 2014 | Author: | Комментарии к записи The Electric Car Industry отключены
Electric Cars

There was a lot of buzz surrounding the IPO of Tesla Motors (Nasdaq: ). The electric-powered sports car maker the first U.S. car-maker to that route since (NYSE: F ) went public in


Investors loved it too. had to raise the number of initial from 11.1 million to million. And it even upped the $14 $16 price tag to $17.

Individual weren t the only ones to what they saw. In Toyota ADR (NYSE: TM ) signed on for a $50 stake in Tesla. And it agreed to with it on building cars.

also bought into it, at under 10% of the company last It did go on to sell 40% of its stake to a fund by Abu Dhabi s government. But Tesla supplies the German car-maker battery packs and chargers for the version of its Smart Fortwo

Overall, the IPO did remarkably well for a that has barely sold cars at $109,000 a pop. has also notably lost $290 million since its in 2003. And it expects that to continue as it pushes its Model S.

so-called mass-market car is expected to $50,000 per vehicle. And that s the government subsidy.

Worse as Tesla moves towards the market, the competition gets

With all that against it, it logical to wonder how the company can survive

Electric Car Market s Is Low

Nearly all car-makers around the have an electric or hybrid in the works.

Yet they mostly that those cars will start out modest at Higher costs and lack of available recharging infrastructure keep customers at bay.

Al an automotive technology expert JD Power, summed it up well: Ten down the road, more 90% of cars will be the conventional that we have now. 10% be hybrids or electric vehicles.

impressive, especially considering of that figure, he says, vehicles will account for a 3%.

Naturally, that makes in them risky. Especially the billions needed to build the batteries to power them.

Bernhart, a partner with Berger Strategy Consultants, t have much confidence in the

Pure battery-electric vehicles be a rather small figure: optimistic criteria, for Europe, than 5% in 2020. On a global the figure will be even

The Electric Slide or the Electric

Carlos Ghosn, the chief of Renault ADR (PINK: RNSDF ) and ADR (PINK: NSANY ), begs to He foresees zero-emission primarily cars capturing a tenth of the market by 2020.

And he predicts a of manufacturing capacity for plug-in and the batteries needed to power within two years.

Roland Berger once strongly disagrees though. it predicts a costly technology forming around those

The result: Battery producers now factories in the U.S. Europe and will end up with twice the needed to supply plug-in conservatively by 2015.

Electric Cars

The company on to forecast that, as a result, six to eight of the 20 or so global players survive the next five to years. And Wolfgang Bernhart specifically, It s a little bit like of the Internet hype.

Admittedly, Street bullishly claims sales of lithium-ion batteries hit $25 billion by 2015. And by 2020, it it to reach $66 billion.

But if Roland got it right, the oversupply would the chronic problems of underused among car-makers themselves. would expose the industry to downward pressure on prices and

An Electric or Electrocuted Future

the bulls do have one thing for them in the form of the BP oil spill.

disaster has roused the electric car Policymakers, investors and consumers have a renewed interest in energy sources.

So along Tesla, they have up:

Battery maker Ener1 HEV )

Battery maker A123 (NASDAQ: AONE )

Lithium-ion component company Polypore (NYSE: PPO )

Still, both and vehicles can t escape the lack of infrastructure. Without re-charging both will suffer

If governments and companies get a move on then the industry has a chance. If not Mr. Ghosn and his compatriots have a future ahead.

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