The Green(back) Revolution Why Tesla Is Just A Distraction Zero Hedge

22 Мар 2014 | Author: | Комментарии к записи The Green(back) Revolution Why Tesla Is Just A Distraction Zero Hedge отключены
TESLA Model S 60 kWh Auto 5dr / Electric (av UK mix)

The Green(back) Revolution: Why Tesla Is A Distraction

Tesla has been specific Mercedes, BMW and Audi at similar price/quality points, and Reports has given the car glowing Is there a broader meaning in other than the introduction of a well-designed luxury automobile? Michael Cembalest’s suggests the Tesla’s price and its fossil footprint suggest that a distraction regarding the issue of and related environmental efficiencies.

The Solution

[Vaclac Smil I pulled together some to illustrate both of his points.

Note that Tesla are net of the $7,500 credit that receive, and after Tesla from ZEV/GHG credits to it by its competitors. In the 2nd chart, you can see that the fossil fuel footprint of the is not much different than the Civic. It’s also than the Civic Hybrid, a car gets all of its electricity through braking rather from the electricity grid.

Currently, the Tesla Model S generates a fuel footprint that is not different than the Honda There are scenarios in which the imprint could be lower, but are all in the future

An explanation of the scenario analysis in the chart:

0. Tesla, Current: see on next page for the energy

1. Vamp: Tesla figures out how to the vampire (standby) electricity by 80%, an issue in the car’s which some users as draining

3.5 kWh per day from the battery the car is idle

2. C-NG: Within fuels, the split between and natural gas, which is 63/37, falls to 50/50 as coal plants continue to be down and more natural gas are built

3. Foss: Fossil fuels from their current 67% of US electricity generation to 60%. sounds like a small but they have ranged 65% to 72% for the last 30 years in the US. For an even decline on a national level, nuclear and/or a break-through on storage of intermittent renewable would probably be needed

4. Thermal efficiency of coal and gas rise closer to theoretical However, on coal, emissions and greater coal plant impose parasitic loads may make theoretical maximums to reach.

5. Assume that 1, 2 and 3 take simultaneously

6. Assume that 1, 2 and 3 place simultaneously, and that the is used just in low-fossil states

A colleague of mine at J.P. Morgan believes Tesla’s long-range plan is to proof of concept at the luxury end of the and then eventually commoditize the at lower price points . If what happens, and if the electricity shown above take then Tesla would the attention they’re getting for annual production of 20,000 on a base of 15 million U.S. sold each year.

Otherwise, what we may be witnessing is a green revolution where represents the buying power of the wealthy driver rather a substantial environmental benefit .

The point is that the oft-promised garden of substantially lower footprints from electric may be decades away from at least in the US. In the meantime, modest in the internal combustion engine, in driving patterns and a move from heavier, low-mpg could get to a similar place.

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